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Leading Off:

CA-25: Pretty clever use of $300, I've gotta say. Democratic podiatrist Lee Rogers, running an uphill battle against GOP veteran Buck McKeon in this challenging district, totally pwned his opponent by putting in the winning bid for a lunch with McKeon at a recent fundraising auction for charity. Rogers now gets to invite three guests; he says he'll bring reporters, though he does not anticipate a "debate." Amusingly, Rogers was actually the only bidder for the meal, which is a pretty funny commentary on McKeon's popularity.

Senate:

MA-Sen: So it looks like the agreement between Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown to enforce penalties for any outside spending on the race is going to have some teeth to it. An obscure group called CAPE PAC ran a handful of web ads touting Brown, so now Brown has to donate half the value of the ads (presently unknown) to a charity of Warren's choosing. (Warren selected the Autism Consortium.) Given that Brown quickly and proudly announced his commitment to honor his pledge, the cynic in me has to wonder if this wasn't some kind of setup: An organization no one cares about spends what is probably the bare minimum possible, allowing Brown to publicly pat himself on the back both for keeping his word and donating to a worthy charity. This is politics. I could believe it.

ME-Sen: Given the treatment he's already getting at the hands of national Republicans, it's hard to see independent Angus King keep up the charade that he might caucus with the GOP for a whole lot longer. NRSC chair John Cornyn says that his organization will support the Republican nominee, not King, while DSCC chief Patty Murray and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are decided non-committal. On top of this, the RNC put out a web video that tries to accuse Democrats of "betraying their principles" by holding the door open to possibly supporting King. You could view it as a means of sabotaging King by goading him to display even more "independence" by distancing himself from Democrats, or as an attempt to sow dissent among rank-and-file Maine Dems over the prospect that national party leaders have "forced" the indie King on them.

Either way, Republicans aren't rolling out the welcome mat. And as James Allen ably documents, King's publicly-stated policy preferences lean decided leftward: pro-financial industry regulation, pro-alternative energy, pro-auto bailout. King might fancy himself above party politics, but when it comes time to actually engage in policy-making, he's kidding himself if he thinks he might have a home in the GOP.

MN-Sen: Republican state Rep. Kurt Bills, who had been flirting with a possible third-party bid for Senate, has decided to get into the race but is sticking with his party label, albeit in a decidedly Paulist vein. He joins a remarkably weak pack of fellow GOPers all praying that Republican Jesus will somehow intervene from up on high and allow them to unseat popular Dem Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

WI-Sen: Great catch by The Hotline's Sean Sullivan, who digs out a few grafs from an AP piece that shows how Republican rich guy Eric Hovde's Senate campaign rollout turned into a big bag of fail:

In his campaign launch at a manufacturing company north of Madison, Hovde lashed out at the federal stimulus program and bank bailout program known as TARP, saying the government was "addicted to spending."

"They were bailed out with our money, our taxpayer money, without any consequences," he said.

But U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission records show that Hovde's company invested in at least 33 banks that received $29 billion in TARP money.

When asked about it, Hovde differentiated between owning banks that received federal bailouts and investing in them.

Totally different! Especially on the campaign trail, where nuanced distinctions have ample time to be carefully aired and considered—a state of affairs particularly encouraged by Republicans.

Gubernatorial:

MT-Gov: State Sen. Larry Jent, just days before filing closes, has decided to drop out of the race for governor, leaving AG Steve Bullock (who had always been the undisputed front-runner) as the only Democratic candidate in the race. Jent's departure could conceivably hurt Bullock on the fundraising front, as candidates for state races in Montana can only raise money for the primary if there actually is a contested primary—but reading between the lines, it sounds like Bullock's people will find a willing Some Dude to stick on the ballot by Monday's deadline.

Relatedly, Bullock tapped Brig. Jen. John Walsh as his running-mate last week. Walsh was the adjutant general of the Montana National Guard, resigning his post a few days earlier so that he could run for office. Sounds like pretty much exactly the profile you want in a state like this.

WA-Gov, WA-01: On Saturday, Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee announced that he would resign from Congress in order to focus on his run for governor, effective March 20. Under Washington state law, because Inslee waited until after March 6 to step down, a special election to replace him will now take place at the same time as the regular November elections, so the fallout from the move will be minimal. But there is a potential quirk regarding the last two months of Inslee's unexpired term; click the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections that looks at what might happen.

House:

AL-06: The Campaign for Primary Accountability is actually out with a second ad hammering GOP Rep. Spencer Bachus, which you can watch at the link. That's on top of this spot which we mentioned in the previous digest.

AZ-06: Arizona's 6th is a very red district, and all of our attention so far has focused on the member-vs.-member battle between GOP Reps. David Schweikert and Ben Quayle. Yet despite the exceedingly difficult nature of this turf, a Democrat has nevertheless entered the race: college professor Matt Jette, who actually ran for governor in 2010—as a Republican. But Jette's platform, which included opposition to the state's notorious new immigration law known as SB 1070, was decidedly moderate... which probably explains why he scored all of 3%. However, despite this Some Dude-ish profile, Jette has already managed to score an endorsement from former state AG Terry Goddard, who was the Democratic gubernatorial nominee last cycle.

CA-21: Eliminating all ambiguity—different media reports had said different things about how far along the path to candidacy he was—Fresno City councilman Blong Xiong is officially joining the Democratic field in the open 21st CD.

CA-26: Moorpark Councilman David Pollock is dropping out of this open-seat race in the Oxnard/Thousand Oaks area. Pollock cited worries that a split Democratic field could cause problems in the state's top-two primary, where the two candidates who get the most votes regardless of party advance to November. Pollock actually makes a good point here: Until he dropped out, there were four Democrats running, along with one Republican, state Sen. Tony Strickland, and one Republican-turned-independent, Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks. That canny move by Parks (she only recently dropped her party affiliation) could potentially allow her and Strickland to make the top two if the Democratic vote is sufficiently fractured.

So now we're down to three Dems: Assemblywoman Julia Brownley, Oxnard Harbor District Commissioner Jess Herrera, and businessman David Cruz Thayne. Brownley is the real heavyweight here, while Thayne (like Pollock) hadn't really raised much. But Brownley only got into the race recently (after Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett unexpectedly bailed) and hasn't filed any fundraising reports (nor has Herrera). Brownley should be able to consolidate the Democratic vote, but Thayne and Herrera say they aren't going anywhere. Both say they've received pressure to drop out, and Thayne in fact released emails from a couple of local party officials pushing him to do just that—missives which so far seem to have had the opposite of their intended effect.

And this, in a nutshell, is why I hate the top-two primary system. Parties should be able to choose their own nominees without interference, and any setup which encourages fewer candidates to run (lest they fear damaging their party's prospects in the general election) is a bad thing.

FL-22: So there may be yet another Democratic entrant in the open 22nd District: businessman Mark Bell. And by "businessman" I mean, CEO of the company which publishes Penthouse and runs the Adult FriendFinder website.

IL-02: Hoo boy. Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. absolutely unloads on his primary opponent, ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson, in this new spot which features a mother whose son died from gun violence lambasting Halvorson for her record on gun control when she served in Congress. I think it packs quite a punch:

Even though what polling we've seen (even Halvorson's own) has been quite favorable to Jackson, I wonder if things are closer than they appear. Jackson's been on the air with several other spots as well, include one TV ad which dings Halvorson for her lack of leadership during the healthcare fight, and a radio commercial which accuses her of voting with Republicans "88 times" (and features a woman howling that Halvorson is "crazy"). Halvorson has a couple of ads out of her own, both positive, but given her soft fundraising, I'd have to imagine Jackson's been able to pay for more airtime in the expensive Chicago media market.

P.S. Amazingly, the narrator of Jackson's radio ad is none other than California Rep. Maxine Waters—and the woman who shrieks that Halvorson is "crazy" is Florida Rep. Corrine Brown! (You can hear that part around 43 seconds in.) Major tip of the cap to sapelcovits for the hilarious find.

IL-13: Physician David Gill is out with an internal from PPP, showing him up 30-18 over Greene County State's Attorney Matt Goetten in the Democratic primary, which is just over a week away. Of course, there are still a ton of undecideds, and unusually for PPP, this poll was in the field for just a single day.

Goetten, meanwhile, is out with his first TV ad, an unimpressive spot with weak production values. But what stands out most is his startling lack of energy in the parts where he speaks. He sounds like a groggy college student struggling through a 9am class—or, to put it more bluntly, like he really just doesn't seem to want this thing. I've also got to wonder about Goetten's chops more generally; the other day, in an almost David Weprin-esque move, he refused to take a stand on the assault on women's reproductive healthcare freedoms, saying: "I’m hesitant to talk about anything that is not going to create jobs and save the middle class in Central Illinois." Facepalm.

MD-06: State Sen. Rob Garagiola is going on the attack, digging out a damaging admission from the SEC filings of CapitolSource, the company founded by his chief rival in the Democratic primary, John Delaney. CapitolSource's most recent 10-K (an annual report detailing company operations that all publicly-traded firms must file) includes this nugget:

We are under audit for our 2006 through 2008 taxable years and, if the Internal Revenue Service determined that we violated REIT requirements and failed to qualify as a REIT or otherwise under reported tax liabilities during those years that we operated as a REIT, it could adversely impact our results of operations.
Garagiola also brings up a 2006 Forbes article which labeled Delaney a "loan shark" (right there in the headline) and lead off by noting that he's "pretty good at avoiding taxes." Perhaps, it would seem, a little too good.

Delaney, for his part, is trying to drown out Garagiola's hits with a new round of paid media. Quite tellingly, his new TV spot starts off by mentioning "Rob Garagiola's untrue negative attacks," but rather than rebut them, he just cites his recent endorsement by Bill Clinton. You know, usually when you deliberately try to change the subject, you wanna be a bit more subtle about it. Delaney's new radio ads are similar, though they also throw in some attacks on Garagiola for good measure.

MN-08: This is no surprise, considering how poorly she fared at the Democratic precinct caucuses last month, but ex-state Sen. Tarryl Clark says she won't participate in the party convention process and will instead forge ahead to the August primary. Frankly, I think Minnesota's convention system—where candidates spend gobs of time pumping local activists for their support and often pledge not to participate in an honest-to-goodness primary before actual voters if they fail to get the party's official backing—is a ridiculous, anti-Democratic waste of time. And bear in mind that Mark Dayton, who has been a real savior in the governor's mansion, eschewed the convention as well. Thank heavens, because I doubt Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the party-endorsed candidate, would have been able to pull off Dayton's ultra-narrow win in the general.

MS-02: Former Greenville mayor Heather McTeer, challenging Rep. Bennie Thompson in the Democratic primary, has gone up with a TV ad in the waning days of the campaign (election day is Tuesday). She hasn't raised much money (this is a very poor district), and the production values are... well, it's mostly a series of still photos. Via Twitter, she acknowledges that the buy "isn't massive" but says "it's extremely aggressive."

ND-AL: GOP Rep. Rick Berg, who got a ton of crap for ripping off former Virginia state House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong with his first ad, has replaced it with a new spot. While terribly cheesy, I actually thought the narration and pacing of that "Mom" ad wasn't bad, but this new commercial has really lousy production values. It features a bunch of stiff-looking people telling the camera that Rick Berg "knows the North Dakota way." Is that sort of like Superman's credo, only single-state-specific?

TX-23: It looks like Ciro Rodriguez wasn't scared off by state Rep. Pete Gallego's recent show of force, seeing as he's gone ahead and filed to run in the Democratic primary in the 23rd District. Gallego, you may recall, shot out a huge list of 140 endorsements last week, clearly designed to ward off Ciro, who is attempting his third congressional comeback (he's 1-for-2). Ciro's bounced around races all cycle, though, first declaring for the 23rd (his old seat) last May, then jumping over to the 35th when the first batch of court-drawn interim maps were published in December, and now finally coming back to the 23rd at the filing deadline.

But all that said, it looks very much like Gallego, who's been running since September, is the stronger candidate here against GOP freshman Quico Canseco, so I'd expect him to prevail in the primary.

WA-01: After seeming to shut the door on Wednesday on a hypothetical run in some other state (following his loss in Tuesday's Democratic primary to Marcy Kaptur in OH-09), now that door is back open for Dennis Kucinich. Or maybe it isn't, depending on what story you're reading. A CBS News piece suggests he's looking around, quoting Kucinich as saying "there's new possibilities that are being born at this moment" and, when explicitly asked about Washington state, "we'll see what the next few days and months bring."

That's the sexier headline that's getting all the attention; nobody seems to be paying attention to the Washington Post story where he says Thursday that it's "very unlikely" he'll jump into another contest elsewhere. At any rate, we've got some clarification from the Ohio Secretary of State's office that might encourage Kucinich to try again: he doesn't have to resign his current seat to pursue a run elsewhere, since the residency requirement applies only at the moment you're elected. (David Jarman)

Other Races:

SC-LG: Almost exactly a year ago, South Carolina's first-term Lt. Gov., Republican Ken Ard, was charged with 92 counts of violating campaign finance rules by the state Ethics Commission. Ard used campaign cash for personal use and failed to properly disclose his spending; among other things, he spend campaign money to attend the SEC championship football game in Atlanta in 2010, and he also bought his wife a gown to wear to the state's inaugural ball. Following the commission's investigation which found Ard guilty and fined him $60K, the case was turned over to the state AG, who convened a grand jury to hear further evidence. Evidently, with further charges looming, it got to be too much for Ard, so he just resigned, effective Friday.

There's also an interesting succession question which Taegan Goddard highlights. Republican Senate President Pro Tem Glenn McConnell, who is next in line to be LG, apparently doesn't want to give up his powerful legislative post. One possibility is that McConnell might resign his current leadership post and allow the Senate to appoint a new president who would take Ard's place (the LG is a mostly ceremonial position), then run for his leadership spot again.

Grab Bag:

IL Fundraising: Pre-primary FEC reports were due on Thursday night in Illinois, covering the period from Jan. 1 through Feb. 29. You can find all the numbers at the link. A quick rundown of some of the key races:

IL-02 (D): Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. is completely swamping ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson on all fronts.

IL-08 (D): Tammy Duckworth more than doubled up Raja Krishnamoorthi over the last two months, but Raja narrowly edged Duckworth both in spending and remaining cash-on-hand.

IL-10 (D): Ilya Sheyman outraised Brad Schneider $237K to $131K, but Schneider spent almost double. Sheyman has a small cash edge.

IL-12 (R): Jason Plummer, the supposed frontrunner, raised just $37K, not much more than Rodger Cook's $31K.

IL-13 (D): Matt Goetten raised $70K to David Gill's $56K, but Gill spent slightly more. However, Goetten has more than three times the cash left.

IL-16 (R): Rep. Don Manzullo outraised Rep. Adam Kinzinger $261K to $243K. Kinzinger spent considerably more, but Manzullo has a slight cash lead.

Polltopia: This guy definitely doesn't have an agenda, does he?

Redistricting Roundup:

FL Redistricting: The Florida Supreme Court, as expected, issued its ruling on the validity of the state's new legislative maps on Friday; the court had to conduct a mandatory review thanks to the new Fair Districts amendments to the state constitution, which forbid lawmakers from drawing districts which favor incumbency and political considerations. The high court upheld the House lines but struck down the Senate plan on a variety of different grounds; if you have a lot of time to kill, you can read the court's remarkably thorough 200-plus page opinion (PDF).

In a nutshell, the court seemed to have three main objections: (1) that a number of districts were insufficiently compact under the Fair Districts amendments; (2) that even though the map did not cause any dilution or retrogression of minority voting rights, the legislature failed to conduct a functional analysis as to retrogression which would have allowed it to properly balance minority voting protections with the FDA; and (3) that the Senate adopted a numbering scheme that manipulates Florida's staggered terms to allow incumbents to serve 10 years (rather than the normal maximum of eight), something which violates the FDA's prohibition on favoring incumbents.

So now the legislature must reconvene for a special session to draw a new Senate map. If it fails to do so, then the state supreme court will draw a plan of its own. And also note that while the House map passed muster with the court, federal litigation over the plan is still possible. It'll also be interesting to see how this opinion affects pending litigation in state court over the new congressional map, since this decision is the first (and only) ruling interpreting the FDA. Point being: There's a lot of wrangling still left to go.

SC Redistricting: Major bummer: The three-judge panel hearing a challenge to South Carolina's new congressional map just issued a decision in favor of defendants. The court ruled that the map did not, as plaintiffs had argued, dilute minority voting rights. (You can read a PDF of the decision here.) Dick Harpootlian, the main attorney on the case, says he'll review the ruling before deciding whether to appeal. Any appeal would go directly to the Supreme Court, though, so given how unfriendly a majority of the justices have been to claims like these, taking the case up there might be a fruitless endeavor.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I've seen that Jesse ad. It's brutal. I've also (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    geoneb

    seen ads by Raja--he's touting his business experience and he talks about his plan to create more jobs.  The only GOP ads for Dold I've seen were Chamber of Commerce ads--they're running a generic ad for a couple of the suburban Republicans.

    But nothing for Joe Walsh.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 05:26:49 AM PDT

    •  How liberal is Halverson? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod

      I know that JJJ has a few issues, but he's still in a 54% black district. Unless Halverson is a special sort of progressive or JJJ is extremely scandal-ridden, I don't see how he loses.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

      by fearlessfred14 on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 07:48:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I have seen the Raja ad... (0+ / 0-)

      ...I don't know if TV is the best bang for the buck in congressional elections though.  I have heard jackson's radio spots. and my mailbox is just packed full of Duckworth and Raja stuff.  More Duckworth stuff though.  Kind of irritating.

      It is not surprising that Duckworth has raised more money with Rham and Alxelrod and Durbin constantly pushing her on the suburbs but go figure.

      We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

      by delver rootnose on Fri Mar 16, 2012 at 02:34:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CBS Wash Post: Santorum 34, Romney 30 (national) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    r2did2, itskevin

    If this is for real this would be big news as it would indicate that Santorum has once again turned the tide against Mitt Romney and should be able to continue to string this thing along. Although I highly doubt he'd be able to maintain this against Romney's much stronger money and organization machine, this is actually the sort of margin Santorum would need to win the rest of the contests by a sufficiently lopsided margin to put Romney's nomination in doubt and create a brokered convention.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/...

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 05:32:12 AM PDT

  •  MN-08: also worth noting that (0+ / 0-)

    Jeff Anderson has not yet decided whether to abide by the DFL endorsement. Personally, I wouldn't mind a primary.

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 06:02:08 AM PDT

    •  contested primaries tend to be bad (0+ / 0-)

      Dayton nearly lost a race that should not have been close after his primary.

      •  At Least in Southern Minnesota..... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000

        .....Dayton ruined himself by going dark on the television airwaves in the final two weeks of the campaign even as Emmer aired back to back to back to back campaign ads over the same time period.  Not sure if the same was true in the other Minnesota media markets but Emmer's face was the only one voters saw in the leadup to the election in the Austin-Rochester-Mankato media markets.  Advertising works, which will undoubtedly bode poorly for Democrats as a rule in the post Citizens United world.

        And it also says something about Dayton himself, or at least the disgraced former Senator, 2010 version of Mark Dayton....that he requires a 20-point lead in both primary and general election polling the weekend before the election if he has a chance of ekeing out a victory by the skin of his teeth on election day.  In this history of poor closers, Dayton is right up there with the worst of them.

        •  your last phrase needs an asterisk (3+ / 0-)

          "in this history of poor closers, Dayton is right up there with the worst of them"*

          *among politicians that have never lost a general election.

        •  He didn't have a 20-point lead (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, stevenaxelrod

          He had a small lead going into the general, and 10 points going into the primary. He barely survived the GOP surge, and his primary opponent used the party endorsement and hte ground game that came with to pull into a tie on election day depsite much less money. Dayton didn't have much ground game.

          Where Dayton nearly blew it was spending all his money in the primary, and he didn't have much fundraising structure, plus the ground game came from the party whose endorsement he bucked so they were hard to win back. He's been a good governor and the party grassroots is behind him, but I wouldn't assert he was the only Dmeocrat who could have won. His opponent had advantages too.

      •  From my perspective, I would prefer to see (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        stevenaxelrod

        a primary in which a more significant percentage of the voters in MN-08 have a say in who our nominee will be than to rely on balance-sheets of endorsements and sparsely attended (c. 3500, iirc) straw-polls. I don't mind a contest of ideas. In the end, I don't think that a primary will give much aid and comfort to Cravaack, though Nolan's supporters likely disagree.

        Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

        by angry marmot on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 06:46:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  i know these people. they're my friends and family (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          I have stressed over and over and over again that Clark does not have the ability to win over these voters. Anderson does, and Nolan does (even though neither of them are perfect fits for the district). I cannot stress enough that if outside money and support wins Clark this nomination, we could very well lose this district again. Clark COULD win, certainly, but she is the weakest candidate of the three, by far. These are a very insular people, and they do not take kindly to someone moving their out of political experience to be elected. They would MUCH rather have one of their own actually representing them. It is really hard to describe Iron Rangers to those that have never been there. This is why Clark got CRUSHED in the straw poll. And I fear that with all of her outside help, she will go nuclear and damage either Nolan or Anderson for the GE.

          And just for the record, I am not currently active in either campaign, although I have been involved with both Nolan's and Anderson's campaigns in advisory rolls.

          •  Agree on Clark... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            stevenaxelrod

            MN-08 is my district, Duluth is my home, and I personally don't know a single person interested in Clark. I doubt that she'll get the same level of nat'l support in the Eighth that she did in the Sixth, so I'm less concerned with her doing any significant damage in the course of a primary which I think would ultimately be a productive contest between Nolan and Anderson.

            Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

            by angry marmot on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 08:00:47 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  i am deathly affraid of national money here (0+ / 0-)

              Clark, for all of her weaknesses has a large national donor base set up. And given the fact that this primary will likely be a low-dollar affair in a really cheap media market means that outside money could carpetbomb Nolan and Anderson. Ardent supporters don't care if they damage the party or other members of the party for the sake of their candidate (Remember PUMA-PAC?). Minnesota is in a fragile state, and the DFL had a great opportunity to regain most of their losses in the state, but is is not something that can be done without discipline or weak candidates. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.

          •  Do You Think Iron Rangers View Cravaack..... (0+ / 0-)

            ....as one of their own any more than Clark?  I don't disagree with your general assessment knowing what I know of the people from the Northland, but if I live in Duluth or Hibbing, I don't see a guy from the 2012-incarnation of exurban North Branch as one of my people any more than I doubt a gal from St. Cloud.  

            •  Cravaack is not one of them either (0+ / 0-)

              But why in the world would you want to neuter that pine of attack by having a nominee that doesn't even live in the district (unlike Cravaack)? Sometimes the hardest thing about running campaigns is managing supporters. It is hard to get tons of volunteers and party members on the same page and stay on message.

              •  I Agree That She Would Be a Bad Nominee..... (0+ / 0-)

                ...but wonder if Cravaack's disconnect from the core of the district doesn't make Clark's carpetbagging a moot point.  Like you, I'd rather not take my chances, but am not as terrified about the prospect of a Clark nomination as you seem to be.

    •  I agree with OGGoldy (0+ / 0-)

      Primaries can get a candidate a practice campaign and can bring interest, but usually they're destructive. As it happens, Clark did so poorly in the caucuses, I can't see her winning a primary. I don't see Anderson beating Nolan if he's bucking the endorsement.

  •  ND-AL should be ND-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits

    Small nitpick on the tag selection for the Rick Berg point: Rick Berg is running for ND's Senate seat, not the at-large House seat in which he is currently serving. The ad should be listed as ND-Sen instead of ND-AL.

  •  FL-08 (4+ / 0-)

    Alan Grayson in car accident yesterday; ran a red light in his Mercedes and hit a bus, minor injuries to two.  And the car doesn't look good in the aftermath either.

    •  Oog (6+ / 0-)

      I can't decide what's worse for the image - running the red light, hitting a bus (the people's limo!), or that he was driving a Mercedes.

      •  Grayson's a big guy (0+ / 0-)

        I can't see him fitting into a compact.

        (But, I agree. Not good for the image.)

        The thing about quotes on the internet is you cannot confirm their validity. ~Abraham Lincoln

        by raboof on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 06:40:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Especially the Mercedes (0+ / 0-)

          I like some of the things he said during the health care debate, but seriously?  He should withdraw and do some other sort of public service for a couple of years before trying again.

          Preferably while driving a Toyota, Honda, or Chevrolet.

    •  i hope everyone involved makes a speedy recovery (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, sapelcovits, Ellid, askew

      But Grayson really should just fade away politically

    •  The bus always wins ... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jake McIntyre, R30A

      unless the opponent is a train.

      The thing about quotes on the internet is you cannot confirm their validity. ~Abraham Lincoln

      by raboof on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 06:43:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think this woman might have something to say (0+ / 0-)

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 06:52:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I really hope this is the final straw. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      This is horrible PR. Give him a primary. Don't let him just walk into this seat.

      "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive." -Vice President Joe Biden

      by drhoosierdem on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 06:59:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I guess it should be the new FL-09 (0+ / 0-)

      And if there is no solid local Democrats like State Rep Soto running for nomination, I'd rate this seat as toss-up leaning Republican.

      •  It's practically a vote sink (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        historys mysteries

        Leaning Republican is a stretch. If he wins the primary and goes to the general, this might reduce his margin a little, but the seat was designed to pack Democrats to protect other Republican seats in the area.

        25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 07:15:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sorry, it is not. (0+ / 0-)

          The real vote sink in the area is the Orlando portion of FL-05. They (The Rs in FL Legislature) don't need another one. They MAY not even need another majority minority seat to comply with VRA, after making FL-05 an AA majority seat.

          Actually, this seat is there mostly because of the new Fair District Amendment requiring protecting minority voting strength (As you may see in FL SC's decision, FL SC seems to interpret this broader than the Federal VRA, and Rs in FL Leg seem to expect this.) and more compact districts respecting existing borders. Without the FDA, Rs in Leg can easily cut apart the Orlando area to make three likely R seat. Now, they make 1 safe R (FL-10), 1 likely R (FL-07, and "likely" only on paper. As Mica runs here and Dem has NO bench it is practically a safe R), and 1 lean D seat (FL-09.)

          FL-09 is carefully designed by Rs in the Legislature to be a compact seat with a Hispanic (about half of the Hispanics here are Puerto Ricans) plurality but with enough GOP voting strength, which combining with the usual low turn-out of Hispanic voters, could give a strong GOP candidate a shot especially in the midterm elections. Don't be fooled by the 60% Obama got in 2008. Just look at the off years you will know why and how it is just a lean D seat. Alex Sink got only 52% (Remember 2010 was a terrible year, but Alex was running against a terrible opponent, getting about even statewide. So I'd call the 52% she got much closer to the normal D voting strength than the Obama 60%)  With Mr. Grayson's help, I think they now have a more than even shot running against him. How much percent you can go down from 52% and still win? If State Rep Soto is running, it will be a completely different story.

    •  He's Cynthia McKinney! (0+ / 0-)

      What an arrogant jagoff...

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 07:32:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  abc/wapo has romney beating obama by 2 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, tk421

    after all the garbage of last week obama loses support? i just dont get voters., or women for that matter

    "It's never too late to be who you might have been." -George Eliot

    by live1 on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 06:33:53 AM PDT

    •  Gas Prices, Gas Prices, Gas Prices..... (0+ / 0-)

      No matter how many people on here tell me that gas prices won't affect anybody's votes, the accompanying writeup of these poll results singles out gas prices as Obama's undoing.  And the prices have only begun their meteoric escalation for the season by pretty much everyone's estimation.  Again I submit that gas prices are unequivocally Obama's #1 problem in his re-election bid.  If by November gas prices are $5 in Green Bay, Des Moines, Pittsburgh, and Columbus, Obama would lose to Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Sharron Angle, Christine O'Donnell, Lyndon LaRouche, or whoever else may be the "other guy" on the ballot.

      •  Ok, but (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tk421, jj32

        As I have said before, the phrasing of the last part of this theory would fly in the face of apparent history, where "the national economy outweighs the effect of state and county economies".

        If gas prices impact the national economy, they'll probably matter, I think.  But beyond that, past elections, at least from what I've read, haven't hinged on what's been going on in Columbus and Pittsburgh except to the extent that reflects the national trend.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 07:31:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  One Advantage Of Elections In November.... (0+ / 0-)

          ....is that the peak oil consumption period has passed and prices usually start to decline.  With everything going on in the Middle East, it's not clear whether that's gonna happen this year.  And even if it does, if it merely declines from an August high of $5.25 a gallon to $4.85 a gallon by election day, we're still in uncharted territory.  

          The psychology you describe seems plausible with committed partisans, but the mushy middle that determines election outcomes seem the most vulnerable to demagogic gas price politics.  The low-information swing voter commuting from Lorain to Cleveland to work every day is extremely unlikely to head into the polls rewarding Obama hours after spending $80 to fill the gas tank that he filled for $40 last year.

          •  That certainly sounds plausible, but (0+ / 0-)

            did you read the link?

            Evidently, voters believe the president has little effect on their local economy, and they do not form their evaluation of the national economy based on surrounding conditions. This finding suggests that people form their opinions of the national economy based on non-local factors, such as the national media.
            See also here:
            Finally, Iowans don’t necessarily think about the economy in terms of Iowa.  In general, perceptions of the economy depend more on the national economy than on conditions in states or localities.  This goes against a lot of conventional wisdom, which imagines that people’s perceptions of the economy depend on their employment status, bank accounts, home values, etc.—or at least those in their communities.

            For example, a classic political science finding is that people’s assessments of the national economy are more strongly related to their vote than are their assessments of their own personal finances.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 08:07:47 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Gas prices peak by Memorial Day (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bobby Big Wheel, jj32

        Unless there's an attack on Iran, they won't be much of a factor by November.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

        by Paleo on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 07:53:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No, no, no (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        Because Gas prices are $3.80 right now, which is only like 8% higher than the same time last year.

        Predicting it to hit $5 this year is a 25% increase over last year, and just doesn't have a foundational basis.  It would take a 30% increase over current prices, which is a seasonal trend not sean either.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 08:29:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  it's already $4.25 in CA for basic unleaded (0+ / 0-)

          we could easily hit $5 this summer, depending on how a bunch of stuff plays out.

          •  But that's not a national average (0+ / 0-)

            Also, CA paying 45 is only a 10% increase over 2011; people seem to be acting like CA and HI were paying $1.99 one year ago.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 10:50:00 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  three months ago we were paying $3.50 (0+ / 0-)

              a year ago we were paying $3. three years ago we were paying $1.70, although that was the rock bottom of the economic crash.

              back to my point, i think we could easily hit $5 this summer in CA, especially if we get any craziness in the middle east or a hurricane in the gulf that hits refining assets (although that wouldn't affect us as much as it would the midwest and east coast, because of where our oil imports come from).

    •  And MSNBC is quoting some poll that shows Obama (0+ / 0-)

      tied with Santorum also.

      I almost screamed at the TV...WTF? I could not believe it.

      These polls are all over the place.

    •  It is interesting that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, Theston, stevenaxelrod

      a poll can come out showing bad news for a Dem and, even if it is an outlier or from a sketchy pollster like Rasmussen, most of the responders here worry and try to understand why the numbers are bad.

      On Freerepublic, someone can post 100 polls showing Obama beating Gingrich, and most of the responses dismiss the polls.

    •  And then... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dzog, jj32

      Gallup's tracking numbers through yesterday had Obama's approval numbers at 47 approve/45 disapprove (yes, +2).  Though I've learned not to overreact to the Gallup daily tracking numbers due to the occasionally fluky sample (which a bunch of pundits should've realized the day Obama fell to 43 approve/50 disapprove, Romney's campaign pointed it out and pundits ran with it as a sign of weakness), this is some balance.

      For what it's worth, the ABC News Poll was conducted Wednesday-Saturday of last week.

      •  As I've pointed out before ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... the media will go with anything that makes an election look like more of a horserace. It's a business decision to pump up ratings, thus allowing the outlet to charge their advertisers more. Everyone needs to factor this in as a boilerplate caveat to all news coverage by for-profit media.

        ---

  •  Bummer in South Carolina redistricting case (0+ / 0-)

    Um, well...much as I truly enjoyed my golfing trip to Myrtle Beach, those folks are like 70+ % evangelical and many haven't yet accepted that they lost the war....you know, the CIVIL WAR !!

    So....

    - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

    by r2did2 on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 06:36:30 AM PDT

  •  HI-02? (0+ / 0-)

    I understand that a conservadem is leading the primary here. Any good options?

    "It is, it seems, politically impossible to organize expenditure on the scale necessary to prove my case -- except in war conditions."--JM Keynes, 1940

    by randomfacts on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 06:40:24 AM PDT

    •  No. (0+ / 0-)

      Simple as that.

      "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive." -Vice President Joe Biden

      by drhoosierdem on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 06:58:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The 2nd place candidate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod

      is a former conservadem who supposedly saw the light and is now a card-carrying progressive who can't say the words "I support gay marriage" and is receiving tons of money and campaign support from all of her far-right family members and friends. The only true progressive in the race, Esther Kia'aina, has shitty fundraising and isn't gaining any traction.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 07:13:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Esther Kia'aina. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod

      Don't be surprised if you never hear that name again. The leading fight in between two conservatives (Hanneman & Gabbard), with a little bit of luck Kia'aina will pull through but her fundraising so far has been less than inspiring to say the least...

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 07:35:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A real home for Kooch (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, dc1000, R30A, wu ming

    Kucinich needs to stop this bizarre WA-01 flirtation and run for a seat representing his hometown, the one place he clearly longs to live more than anywhere else. And he can do so by leaving the petty provincialism of the House behind, by stepping into the Senate. He'd be filling a seat once held by one of our greatest civil rights leaders, and he'd be striking a blow for the most disenfranchised Americans.

    Dennis Kucinich clearly should be running for Shadow Senator from DC. It's a perfect fit. He already lives in DC, and he apparently has no intention of leaving DC. The job comes with no legislative or constituency responsibilities whatsoever - it's purely a platform for advocacy. That would have to be a welcome change for a representative who was often criticized for failing to meaningfully participate in the legislative process. And he'd be following in the footsteps of Jesse Jackson, who was DC's first Shadow Senator.

    Now, Shadow Senators don't actually earn wages or have offices or a staff, but that can hardly matter when you have a chance to strike a blow for voting rights for DC. Right?

  •  IL-13 (0+ / 0-)

    David- You see what those of us on the ground here have been seeing. I don't know quite what Durbin has been seeing in supporting Goetten. Here in Champaign County (and apparently also around Bloomington, according to PPP) we just don't see the point of pushing a candidate like Goetten, with not much interest in national issues or even in the office itself.

    Michael Weissman UID 197542

    by docmidwest on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 07:01:30 AM PDT

  •  I wish Warren had not agreed to Brown's Super PAC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    scheme. Hopefully more Democrats won't fall into the same trap.

    Why could this be a problem?
     http://mobile.nytimes.com/...

    •  I largely agree with (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      We Won

      Wendy Kaminer here:

      Indeed, Warren apparently wants the press to help silence outside groups. According to the Boston Globe, she has "suggested notifying broadcasters in the hopes of getting their help and 'ensuring that the agreement not only cover express advocacy ads, but all paid advertisements that seek to promote or attack either candidate or campaign.'"

      Shame on any media outlet that offers "help" for efforts to repress independent advocacy. Candidates naturally want to monopolize electoral speech; they want to "control the narrative." They're entitled to desire control, obviously, but they're not entitled to exercise it, and they should surely know better than to ask media outlets to act as enforcers for their campaigns. The presumptuousness of the proposed Brown/Warren agreement is jaw-dropping.

      (Except that some of Kaminer's language is a bit heated, and I don't necessarily  think "it seems fair to assume that they would impose legally binding rules on outside groups if they could".)

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 07:45:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think that agreement was against advevertising (0+ / 0-)

      Also, it applies to Brown, Rove's Super PAC, et al.
      Finally, they agreed to it together, it wasn't his idea.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 08:15:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Does anybody have link to the full People's Pledge (0+ / 0-)
        •  Here is a link to a pdf (0+ / 0-)

          http://images.dailykos.com/... ]

          Brown donated to the charity. The press ran lots of stories on how this shows he is a "man of his word". Are you kidding me?

          •  People act like Warren sold the farm on this (0+ / 0-)

            they ignore the reciprocricity of this agreement.  Just like how Dem groups can't advertise against Brown and for Warren, Repub groups (Karl Rove's Super PAC, the Chamber of Commerce, etc.) can't advertise either without the candidate they're doing it for pays the penalty.  It won't stop unions from carrying out a ground game, just from advertising through the sorts of groups banned by this agreement.

            Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

            by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 12:42:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Via Seth Masket (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    This is also relevant:

    Colorado's version of liberal super PACs spent nearly 150 times more money than their Republican counterparts in the last election cycle, with most of the money coming from a small circle of unions, wealthy individuals and advocacy organizations, a Denver Post analysis found.
    [...]
    Colorado Democrats leaped ahead of the GOP again in 2010 after two federal court rulings gave corporations, unions and other independent groups the right to directly influence elections. Democrats quickly set up independent expenditure groups, which can lay out unlimited amounts of money and expressly advocate the election or defeat of a candidate as long as they do not coordinate with the office-seeker. Then they transferred money from the 527s, as well as infused fresh money, into the newly created groups, The Post found by examining financial records from the two types of organizations .
    My emphasis.  It's a big mistake, I think, to assume that "outside money" is always going to be Republican money, or Republican-dominated money.  Democrats have plenty of such organizations.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 07:56:57 AM PDT

    •  Also a WATN (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades
      "We do what it takes to win day in and day out," said Joan Fitz-Gerald, former Colorado Senate president and current head of America Votes, a Washington D.C.-based liberal organization that coordinates election campaigns with 37 Colorado groups.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 08:01:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Now that NY is done with redistricting, does (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    someone have an overall +/- # for Dems? I am curious how big of a hole we have to try to retake the House majority.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 08:32:58 AM PDT

    •  I'm currently estimating +10 (0+ / 0-)

      which assumes that the NY map is essentially that court map and Florida doesn't change substantially enough to cause someone Bill Young to retire.

      Once NY is actually finalized and we have an idea what the FL Supreme Court will do I will update my race ratings diary on the house.

      I also have plans to do a diary on what would have happened if redistricting took place after 2008 (hint, we gain/keep the house), but that won't be for a while probably.

    •  DONE with redistricting??? (0+ / 0-)

      Not by a longshot.  The magistrate has not released her revisions which will be sent to a three judge panel who will hold a public hearing on Thursday.  Objections to the magistrate's revisions are due by Thursday at noon.

      Meanwhile, back at the Albany circus, Cuomo seems to be signaling that a legislature drawn map is preferable and the judge used 98% of what the Senate and Assembly submitted anyway.  Not true.  The judge seems to have used the Common Cause map.  The Senate GOP map looks like it is from 1992.

  •  Great to see Doc Gill (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    making it happen.
    A PNHP ER doc who has been way ahead on women's reproductive rights for his entire career.
    Goetten is self-descibed as "a pro-choice Catholic who always chooses life."
    Durbin fumbled the ball on this one.

    Redistricting should send Tim Johnson into lobbying, where I'm sure he'll cash in.
    http://www.gill2012.com/...

  •  alright, i'll ask again (0+ / 0-)

    Why is Rick Berg's ad for US Senate under ND-AL? I asked over the weekend and didn't get a response.  It's like marking Chris Murphy's stuff under CT-05 despite it being news about his senate race.  

  •  Occasionally (really rarely) politics can be... (0+ / 0-)

    amusing and interesting.  Hat's off to Lee Rogers and his $300.

    "The right to be heard does not automatically include the right to be taken seriously." -- Hubert H. Humphrey

    by Candide08 on Mon Mar 12, 2012 at 09:09:16 AM PDT

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